Rudd wot won it

Labor's stunning victory was down to more than just John Howard's woes

On Saturday 24 November, Australian political history was made when the Labor party, led by Kevin Rudd, inflicted a punishing defeat on the ruling conservative Liberal/National coalition. After 11 and a half years in opposition, Labor won over 20 seats from the conservatives, including the prime minister’s own constituency of Bennelong, in one of the largest recorded electoral swings.

The reasons for Howard’s loss have been extensively analysed. Controversial labour market reforms, environmental neglect and a series of interest rate rises have been blamed for the government’s defeat. More often though, it has been argued that Howard simply outstayed his welcome, had grown tired and voters were attracted by a dynamic and fresh alternative. However, on its own this explanation ignores the considerable forces that stood in the conservatives’ favour. Australia is experiencing unprecedented prosperity on the back of a commodities boom and the growth of India and China. In spite of some high profile policy failures, the government was perceived as competent. Therefore, analysis needs to turn to what Rudd did to engineer this stunning victory.

Three primary principles can be seen to underpin the Rudd electoral strategy.

•    Media and image: As much as it is unfashionable to talk about media management and image in the current ‘post-spin’ political climate, this was pivotal to Rudd’s early and continued success. Prior to taking on the Labor party leadership, Kevin Rudd realised quickly that most Australians consume their news and current affairs through non-traditional sources. From his days on the shadow frontbench, he assiduously worked commercial radio, morning chat-shows and the light entertainment circuit. Unmediated by the ‘serious’ lobby journalists and pundits, Rudd was adept at reaching out to groups that had previously displayed little interest in politics, particularly younger voters. The use of ‘Kevin07’ as the dominant election motif underlined his personal popularity in the 18-30 age group – many of whom had little memory of previous Labor administrations. This media strategy had the added benefit of rounding out his cerebral and staid public image.

•    Economy: What marked the 2007 election campaign from Labor’s disastrous 2004 campaign is the different role played by the economy as an issue. Having been at the helm of the Australian economy during a period of global economic turmoil in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Liberal party had become effective at tarring Labor with high interest rates and irresponsible fiscal policy. By 2007, this line of attack looked discredited as the conservatives presided over successive rate rises and a housing boom that was becoming unsustainable. From the very beginning, Rudd boasted his conservative economic credentials, promising balanced budgets and a ‘razor gang’ to cut ‘bloated bureaucracy’. Howard and the Liberal Party helped Rudd neutralise the economy as an issue through a series of profligate promises, vastly outspending the Labor Party. Thus, Rudd was able to outmanoeuvre the government by promising frugality in order to keep a lid on inflation and interest rates. This was perhaps Howard’s greatest tactical error and Rudd’s triumph.

•    A positive campaign: One of the greatest dilemmas facing any opposition trying to form a government is to balance criticism of the incumbents with a positive message of change. Too often, they veer to the former, appearing mean or cynical. From an early stage, the Rudd campaign claimed ‘the future’ as its own and crafted a positive vision of the country that implicitly cast the government as ‘tired’ and ‘out of ideas’. With Labor effectively owning the ‘positive ground’, Howard was left to either defend his record or go on the attack. In the final closing days of the campaign, covert leafleting of a marginal electorate by renegade Liberal party campaign workers was publicly exposed. The content of the leaflets was openly racist, but it seemed for many to encapsulate the desperate lengths some in the conservative ranks were prepared to go to hang onto power. This reinforced the Labor campaign’s claim to a positive unifying message, and put the final nail in the coffin of the Howard government.

Labor’s success over the weekend has cemented the Party’s dominance in both the state and national arenas. In power in every administration across the country, no other government in Australia’s history has been offered the same opportunity to embark on a programme of progressive reform and transform the country. What Kevin Rudd makes of this opportunity will become clear as he puts together his ministerial line-up and implements Labor’s policy agenda over coming months.

Matthew Carter is a former senior adviser to the Labor premier of Queensland. He is currently working for the UK Cabinet Office and writes in a personal capacity.

Comments

Posted by Dan McCurry on 28 November 2007, 6:28:50 PM
Those three points look worryingly similar to what we're facing from Cameron at the next election.