Mania drain

Obama is untested and dangerously exposed to a conservative onslaught

It is not that I don’t like hope. I am all for it. I am also a huge fan of change. It’s not that I don’t like Obama, I am sure he’s a wonderful man. It’s just that I dread an Obama candidacy. I don’t think he can win. The reason is simple, throughout the campaign so far he’s simply been too lucky.

Bill Clinton in 1991 and 1992, on the other hand was an unlucky candidate. He took hit after hit. He was a draft-dodger. He didn’t inhale but he did puff on a joint. Gennifer Flowers told her lurid stories. In short, he was presented to the public as a shifty satyr.

But the Bill Clinton of 1992 also had an advantage. He was standing on a policy platform that was bedded deeply in. It challenged his own party deeply and it reached out beyond to the nation. His speech to the 1991 convention of the Democratic Leadership Council, the modernising wing of the party, is an exhilarating mix of grit and petrol, it’s full of tough choices and qualified hope.

Obama has had the misfortune to be luckier than Clinton when it comes to taking fire. It is only since he became the front-runner, a matter of weeks, that he’s come under fire from the right. They have found their bead with terrifying ease. Obama is a bubble. He’s an out and out liberal. He’s also vulnerable to charges of hypocrisy because of the criticism he levelled at others. Some are even describing a messianic edge to his campaign. None of this is necessarily true. But washing dirty laundry takes time and Obama’s only just opening his laundry bag.

Bill Clinton recovered from his setbacks and each time deepened the sense of himself as a rounded human being, faults and all. He even recovered from the impeachment attempt. Hillary, has taken almost 20 years of often hysterical attack as a femi-nazi, lesbian, philandering murder, fraudster, patsy to a Chinese spy. She survives as Bill does too. They have established negatives in the public eye, but they are themselves established figures. One more scandal or story won’t break them overnight. But it took them time to build up this thick political skin.

Now the full Republican artillery is turning on Obama, he has a relatively short time left in the campaign to fight back. Remember what happened to John Kerry? A brave and highly decorated veteran got tarred as a coward by the Republican noise machine. Obama’s short career and his so far easy ride makes him an achingly vulnerable target.

Obama also faces an even greater challenge. He has not had to confront his supporters or his party with difficult choices. He’s the most liberal senator, by some accounts. His site offers his party’s favourite, comfy nostrums. More union rights, renegotiate Nafta, withdraw from Iraq on a public timetable, end Bush tax cuts for the rich. And on the other hand it’s all but silent on guns and crime and other issues Democrats find difficult. It is a straightforward liberal platform, and nowhere does he ask his supporters to accept one difficult truth, hard choice, or uncomfortable position. Come the election he’ll have too little time to appease the hot, shallow enthusiasm of his liberal base, and keep his appeal to independent, less partisan voters. Independents are, of course, John McCain’s preferred hunting ground, and the deciders of general elections.

Obama reminds me of the military maxim, ‘no plan survives contact with the enemy’. He is the candidate who has followed a charmed path and faced little enemy fire. And it is his very luck that means he arrives in a weak position for the general election to come. His negatives are unconfronted, his policy positions are untested. I fear he is a political Icarus who’s just now nearing the beating sun.

William Higham is a member of Vauxhall CLP.

20 Feb 2008 00:00

 

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