Lewis Baston

Battleground Britain

Editorial  |  5 February 2014

Forty years ago this month, Harold Wilson led Labour back to power and ejected Edward Heath from Downing Street. It was hardly a resounding victory: Labour won fewer votes but a handful more seats than the Tories, and Wilson was 17 seats short of a majority, forcing him to call a second general election only …

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Labour’s road to victory

Lewis Baston  |  5 February 2014

Introducing this special Progress supplement, Lewis Baston surveys the battleground on which Labour has chosen to fight the next election Labour’s target list in the 2015 election includes 106 constituencies that the party aims to add to the 258 seats it won in the general election of 2010. If the party were to hit all …

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How will the Lib Dems actually do?

Lewis Baston  |  31 January 2014

Public opinion, at least in terms of voting intention, has been unusually stable during this parliament. There has barely been any change in the main parties’ ratings since the middle of 2013, when Labour’s lead over the Conservatives narrowed and Ukip support subsided a bit from its peak just after the county council elections in …

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Watch out for ‘Fergie Time’

Lewis Baston  |  22 November 2013

Labour has had quite a good month in the polls. The party’s share has edged up since mid-October, from the neighbourhood of 37 per cent to something more like 39-40 per cent, while the Conservatives may have softened a bit over the last couple of weeks in particular. The Liberal Democrats and United Kingdom Independence …

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‘Watch the share, not the gap’

Lewis Baston  |  25 October 2013

The usual pattern for opinion polling over conference season is that each party gets a shortlived bump in support stemming from their conference, but the effect vanishes quickly and within a couple of weeks of the end of the Conservative conference the parties’ poll ratings will be back to where they were before any of …

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Poll position

Lewis Baston  |  21 September 2013

The new territory of a fixed-term parliament means Labour should hold its nerve as 2015 draws near, writes Lewis Baston In years gone by, the fourth party conference season of a parliament would have been heavy with speculation about the timing of the next election. Even if the parliament ran into a fifth year, all …

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On the frontline

Lewis Baston  |  4 June 2013

Last month saw the launch of Progress’ Campaign for a Labour Majority. Lewis Baston profiles the 40 seats which will determine the size of Ed Miliband’s majority ———————————————- While it will only take a small swing to make the possibility of a Labour coalition or minority government a reality, to win a working majority that …

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Blue to red: Can Labour win without Tory switchers?

Catherine Vallis  |  14 May 2013

‘No.’ This was the simple answer from Mary Creagh that kicked off the Progress annual conference 2013 breakout session ‘Can Labour win without Tory switchers?’ To explore this issue Progress brought together a diverse panel chaired by Hopi Sen. Mary Creagh, the shadow environment secretary, was joined by Independent columnist Owen Jones, former Daily Telegraph …

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Building ‘One Nation Labour’

Robert Philpot  |  1 November 2012

Ed Miliband delivered a great speech. Now it is time to fill in the gaps Great speeches do not election victories make. If they did, Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock – whose oratory far outclassed that of their opponent – would have easily defeated Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. Nonetheless, the annual address to party …

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Marginal difference

Lewis Baston  |  28 September 2012

Would Labour gain more by targeting Liberal Democrat or Tory voters? A new study by Lewis Baston sifts the evidence Over the summer a debate took place within Labour circles about electoral strategy. Put simply: where should the party be focusing its energies in expanding support from the low share of the vote that it …

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