Beneath the Labour surge

Conor Pope  |  22 May 2017

The Tories have hit a crisis just as Labour support has started to pick up. Is this the beginning of a comeback, asks Conor Pope ‘The polls are certain to narrow’, I wrote, four weeks ago today. And they have, sort of. Back then, we were 25 points behind the Tories, at worst – or 11 …

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What happened?

Peter Kellner  |  5 December 2016

The voters pollsters missed – traditionally Labour and Democrat – are now supporters of populist parties, leaders and causes, finds Peter Kellner   In the early evening of 8 November, just as the first American states were closing their polling stations, a Fox News executive rang Donald Trump’s headquarters. Provisional figures from the exit polls indicated that …

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Margin of error

The Progressive  |  28 January 2016

We ignore the polls at our peril The dramatic announcement of the results of the exit poll at 10.01pm on Thursday 7 May 2015 has become one of those ‘Where were you?’ political moments. Anyone in politics can tell you what they were doing. Those at the heart of campaigns can recount the shock, horror, …

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Polling inquiry: there may be trouble ahead

Keiran Pedley  |  23 January 2016

It is fair to say that 2015 was a difficult year for pollsters. Despite some successes (correctly calling the Scottish National party surge in Scotland and Jeremy Corbyn’s election as leader of the Labour party) they got the one that mattered most wrong. They called the general election as a dead heat, only for David …

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Euro polls and Europol

David Poyser  |  1 December 2015

A recent poll showed marked Eurosceptic shift in the wake of the Paris attacks, and after the United Kingdom Independence party and its allies used the refugee crisis to use fear on immigration as part of their case for Brexit. Between now and the referendum, pro-European progressives will have to keep on showing how European cooperation …

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The nationalists only have to win once

Gemma Doyle  |  4 August 2015

Being a member of the Labour party can feel a bit like round after round of self-flagellation at the moment. But spare a thought for us Scots. Not for us the luxury of five years for a full rethink and rebuild. The Scottish National Party juggernaut rolls on and the next elections to the Scottish …

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Only by rejecting ‘lazy Labour’ can Labour win in 2020

Rich Durber  |  4 June 2015

This week the true scale of Labour’s task at the next election became clear when the Fabian Society published research showcasing which seats the party needs to win to form a majority in 2020. Even a cursory glance at this ‘target list’ makes for grim reading. Harlow, Worcester, Gloucester, Putney, Battersea, Watford. Few of these …

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Letter from … Norwich North

Jessica Asato  |  31 March 2015

I sit writing this after listening to George Osborne’s budget with my new baby girl sleeping nearby. Since I have had a child I worry even more about what the decisions being made today might mean for her in the next 20 or 30 years. Issues which were once a matter of high principle become …

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Carry on polling: can George Osborne keep it up until May?

Lewis Baston  |  5 January 2015

Before Christmas, I wrote a piece for Conservative Home about the polling landscape six months out from the general election and what one can tell about the situation from historical precedents. The findings were not entirely encouraging for Labour: Labour oppositions tend to poll worse in the election than they do in the polls at …

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Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box

David Green  |  10 December 2014

The British voter is a strange beast: both excitable and cautious, radical and conservative, resigned and optimistic. This book wants to get under the bonnet of polling, and takes aim at the use, and abuse, of polling in modern politics. It does it with such aplomb that no political home’s Christmas tree should be without …

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